Chinese & US Truckmakers Could Take a Quarter of Europe's Electric Truck Market by 2030

Europe's legacy truckmakers have a math problem, and a new analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) puts a number on it. Published September 9, 2026, the research finds that Chinese and US new entrants could capture more than a quarter of Europe's heavy electric truck market by 2030 if incumbent manufacturers keep slow-walking electrification. The lever isn't badge loyalty or styling — it's cost per kilometer.

What happened

T&E studied e-truck costs, technical specs, and manufacturers' own stated targets, and the picture it paints is one of a market opening up fast. Zero-emission trucks made up 5.6% of European sales in 2025 — double the share from a year earlier. The group credits two things: the EU CO2 rules that took effect in July 2025, and battery prices that keep falling.

In some markets the shift is already well past novelty status. In Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands, electric trucks account for more than 15% of new sales.

European manufacturers have responded with more models at better prices. But T&E's numbers show the newcomers arriving with a real advantage: buying a Chinese e-truck can lower total cost of ownership by 12% versus a comparable European model — a saving of up to €43,000 across five years. On the specs that actually decide a purchase — driving range, charging time, maximum payload, and energy efficiency — the analysis found new-entrant trucks performing on par with European ones.

Why it matters

Haulage runs on margins most retailers would consider a rounding error: routinely 1.5% to 2%. In that world, a double-digit cut to total cost of ownership isn't a nice-to-have, it's the whole decision. T&E's worked example is a German transport operator who chooses a new-entrant electric truck over a European one and watches TCO drop from €0.63/km to €0.55/km, residual value included. Over five years, that's the €43,000.

The structure of the market makes the risk sharper. Europe's heavy truck market moves about 245,000 vehicles a year and is dominated by a short list of names: Daimler Truck, Traton, IVECO, DAF, and Volvo Group. A concentrated market with comparable quality available at lower prices is exactly the kind of market a credible newcomer can move into quickly.

"Competitive Chinese and US truck models are already in the European market, many more are poised to enter soon. This is a critical moment for Europe's trucking industry which should learn from what has happened to the car industry." — Stef Cornelis, director of freight and fleets, T&E

What this means for EV owners

You're not shopping for a 40-ton tractor unit, but this story matters to your driveway in two ways.

First, it's more evidence that total cost of ownership — not sticker price — is becoming the number that decides EV purchases at every weight class. Fleets have always thought this way, and passenger buyers are catching up. The same logic scales down: the cheapest electric mile is the one you charge at home overnight rather than at a public fast charger. That's why a properly specced Level 2 setup is usually the single best accessory investment an EV owner makes, and it's the first place to look in our EV chargers collection.

Second, heavy-duty electrification drags the grid and the charging network forward with it. As trucking corridors get high-power charging hubs, the utility upgrades and hardware that follow tend to benefit everyone plugging in nearby. The catch is connector variety — more networks and more standards mean the adapter you don't have is the one you'll need. Keeping the right charging adapters in the frunk is cheap insurance, and if you want gear filtered to your exact car, start from shop by vehicle.

The bottom line

T&E's warning is aimed at policymakers and truckmakers, not consumers: weakening the pace of electrification now hands market share to competitors who have already committed. As Cornelis put it, competition will be good for logistics companies and consumers, but incumbents have only a limited window to keep their lead while they sit on the fence between combustion and electric.

For the rest of us, the read-through is simpler. Electric is winning the cost argument first in the segments where costs are counted most carefully — and that trend rarely reverses.