ARK Invest Doubles Down on a Tesla-SpaceX Merger, and Elon Musk Pushes Back

The Tesla-SpaceX merger conversation is back, and this time it pulled a direct response out of Elon Musk. On ARK Invest's "Brainstorm" podcast, Cathie Wood's team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued that a combination of the two companies remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year, even if the deal itself would take much longer to actually close.

Winton described Tesla's Shanghai operations as a "small ish wrinkle" for a merger rather than a genuine obstacle. The logic there: SpaceX does national security work for the U.S. government, and that sits awkwardly next to Tesla's manufacturing base in China.

Musk's Response Was Short and Pointed

Musk did not engage with the merger math. He went straight at the China framing instead.

"China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit," he wrote on X.

It was a repeat of language he first used in late July, after the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie-up. Musk called that report "absurdly fake news" at the time and said a separation had "never even come up in a discussion ever." He echoed the same line again this week.

Why Shanghai Keeps Coming Up

The denial has not put the question to bed, because Gigafactory Shanghai is genuinely central to how Tesla operates. Per the report, the plant still ships more than half of Tesla's global deliveries and serves as the company's main export hub for Europe and Asia. Any corporate restructuring that touches it is a big deal, which is exactly why analysts keep poking at it.

The broader merger talk has been building since SpaceX's IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency. Wedbush's Dan Ives has put the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027. ARK's year-end announcement prediction adds another data point to that same timeline.

Both Things Can Be True

Worth noting: Musk's denial and the analyst predictions are not necessarily in conflict. ARK and Ives are describing convergence at the corporate level. The Journal's July report described internal restructuring of the China business. Musk can accurately say a China spinoff was never discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward.

For now, Tesla's China business remains intact, and Musk has shown no interest in publicly softening that position no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.

What This Means If You Drive a Tesla

Practically speaking, in the near term? Not much. Corporate structure changes at this level don't reach into your garage. But a few things are worth keeping an eye on:

• Nothing changes for your current vehicle. Your Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, or Cybertruck keeps its warranty, its Supercharger access, and its over-the-air update pipeline regardless of what happens on the corporate side.
• Shanghai matters for supply, not for your existing car. If you're an owner in Europe or Asia, that plant is likely where your vehicle came from. It's still running.
• Connectivity is the thread to watch. Musk has been vocal recently about Starlink eventually being built into every car. If a merger ever does happen, deeper satellite integration is the most plausible place it shows up in the actual product.
• Accessory compatibility isn't affected. Chargers, adapters, mounts, and interior gear are tied to your vehicle's model year and hardware, not to who owns the parent company.

Our take: this is a story to follow, not one to act on. If you've been holding off on a wall connector, a mobile charging kit, a set of all-weather mats, or a roadside safety bundle because of headlines like this one, there's no reason to wait. Corporate merger speculation moves stock tickers. It doesn't change which adapter fits your charge port or whether your Highland Model 3 needs a different center console organizer than a pre-refresh car.

We'll update this story if ARK's year-end timeline actually produces an announcement.